Data Bank

The numbers behind our case, and where they come from.

Everything we say in public rests on a source we can stand behind. This page collects those sources: county budgets, state reports and local coverage, organized so that residents, officials and reporters can check our work and use it in their own.

Figures as of October 2026. Coverage runs from October 2024 to October 2026.

How to read this page

We rank sources in three tiers, and we say which one a figure rests on. Primary means a government budget, assessment report, state study or utility filing. Press means a reputable news outlet, linked to the article. Industry means a trade group or market tracker, used with care and labeled.

Dates are publication dates. Where two counties define a figure differently, we say so rather than pretend the numbers line up. We never delete a source. When a figure is superseded, we keep the old one and mark it.

Corrections. If we're wrong, we verify it, we fix it here, and we say what led to the error. Send us a correction.

Key figures

Key figures

About 40%

of Loudoun County's General Fund comes from data center taxes, about $1.3 billion in fiscal 2027. County guidance says that revenue "will plateau in the next 5 to 10 years."

Primary Loudoun FY2027 adopted budget; WUSA9, Sept. 15, 2026
57 / 43

Arlington's tax base is now 57% residential and 43% commercial, against a pre-pandemic target of 50/50, after office values fell 19% in a year.

Press ARLnow, Jan. 20, 2026
$131.5M

Fairfax County's forecast fiscal 2027 budget gap, after closing a $292.7 million gap the year before with its first meals tax.

Press FFXnow, Dec. 3, 2025; WUSA9, May 6, 2025
3 to 1

Fairfax County created three times as many jobs as homes over a decade, according to its board chair.

Press Patch, Aug. 26, 2026
No. 1

The D.C. region ranked first in the country for worst traffic in 2025.

Press InsideNoVa, July 23, 2025
$1.7B

Virginia's shortfall in highway maintenance funding.

Press Virginia Mercury, Sept. 18, 2026

Tax base and rates

Real estate rates and the commercial share, by locality

Where businesses carry more of the base, homeowners pay a lower rate. The effective rate column measures tax against market value, which is the only fair way to compare localities that reassess on different schedules.

LocalityReal estate rate, 2026 ($ per $100 assessed)Effective rate, 2025 ($ per $100 market value)Commercial and industrial share of real estate baseChange in average residential bill, 2026Local-source share of revenue, FY2025
Loudoun County$0.805$0.7536.6%+$14179.7%
Prince William County$0.865a$0.8234.2%−$5661.2%
City of Manassas$1.24b$0.9832%c59.4%
City of Alexandria$1.135$1.0717.4%76.4%
Arlington County$1.053$0.9817.1%+$46680.8%
Spotsylvania County$0.7373$0.5914.6%d54.8%
Fairfax County$1.12$1.0214.4%+$33773.6%
Fauquier County$0.895b$0.728.7%d68.3%
City of Fairfax$1.0725$0.9782.4%
City of Falls Church$1.18$1.05+$557e83.4%
City of Manassas Park$1.38$1.2148.0%f
Culpeper County$0.45$0.4049.2%
Warren County$0.569$0.4456.1%f
Virginia, statewide$0.8986$0.7662.3%

Primary Rates: each locality's adopted tax year 2026 rate ordinance or fiscal 2027 budget. Effective rates: Virginia Department of Taxation, 2025 Assessment/Sales Ratio Study (the statewide figure is the weighted median). Commercial shares: Loudoun 2026 assessments; Prince William 2026 annual report; Arlington 2026 assessments; Fairfax FY2027 adopted budget overview; Alexandria 2026 assessments. Local-source share: Virginia Auditor of Public Accounts, Comparative Report, fiscal 2025. Bill changes: county fiscal 2027 budget adoption releases.
a Base rate; Prince William adds a 7-cent countywide fire levy. b Includes a countywide fire levy (Manassas $1.05 plus $0.19; Fauquier includes its fire and rescue levy). c City-reported figure on the city's own definition; not directly comparable. d Fauquier: commercial share of locally assessed real estate, tax year 2025 (FY2025 ACFR, Table 5-A). Spotsylvania: Jan. 1, 2024 land book. e Median homeowner, per ARLnow, May 14, 2026. f Manassas Park and Warren have not filed APA reports since FY2023 and FY2022; their figures are older. Arlington and Fairfax commercial shares exclude apartments; Loudoun and Prince William include data centers. Blank cells mean the locality does not publish the figure on a comparable basis.

Where the money comes from

General property taxes as a share of local-source revenue, fiscal 2025

Virginia localities cannot levy an income tax. The tax on real and personal property is where most local money comes from, which is why the makeup of the property base decides who pays.

LocalityTotal revenue per residentLocal-source revenueGeneral property taxesProperty taxes as share of local-source revenueComposite index, 2026 to 2028
Arlington County$7,841$1.55B$1.06B68.4%0.8000
Fairfax County$6,923$5.86B$4.25B72.6%0.6381
Loudoun County$8,502$2.98B$2.37B79.7%0.5728
Prince William County$6,339$1.93B$1.42B73.4%0.3767
City of Alexandria$7,462$908M$631M69.5%0.8000
City of Fairfax$8,819$175M$105M60.1%0.8000
City of Falls Church$9,044$120M$77M64.5%0.8000
City of Manassas$7,107$181M$116M64.2%0.3285
City of Manassas Parkf$6,332$53M$38M71.9%0.2790
Fauquier County$5,239$267M$202M75.5%0.5778
Culpeper County$4,390$121M$82M67.8%0.3616
Spotsylvania County$4,704$386M$240M62.1%0.3783
Warren Countyf$3,588$82M$59M71.9%0.4482
Virginia, statewide$5,790$31.0B$20.5B66.1%

Primary Virginia Auditor of Public Accounts, Comparative Report of Local Government Revenues and Expenditures, fiscal 2025. The Local Composite Index is the state's measure of a division's ability to pay for schools; the Virginia Department of Education caps it at 0.8000. f Manassas Park and Warren figures are from their last filed reports (FY2023 and FY2022). The table shows general government revenue; it excludes enterprise funds such as water utilities.

Data centers

Data centers by locality

Northern Virginia is the largest data center market in the world. Counts below come from each locality and are not on one basis: some count buildings, some facilities, some permitted sites. Revenue shares use different denominators, noted in each row.

LocalityOperatingOperating sq ftData center tax revenue per yearShare of revenueWhere things stand (October 2026)
Loudoun County23356.5M$1.30BAbout 40% of the General Fund (FY2027)By-right development ended March 2025. Board voted 7-1-1 on Sept. 15, 2026 to draft a 12-month pause on new legislative applications; final resolution expected Oct. 20. Standards rewrite due summer 2027. 116 projects in the pipeline.
Prince William County5713.1M$549.7MAbout 28% of general revenue (FY2027 proposed)Board voted 8-0 on Sept. 22, 2026 to end by-right development countywide, with a 90-day grace period. Denied the 2,000-acre Dulles South campus 8-0 on July 7, 2026. Overlay-district repeal under way.
Fairfax County202.3M$110.6MAbout 1.9%Zoning ordinance amendment adopted with siting and design rules. County sold 41.7 acres in Chantilly for a data center in March 2026, projected at about $20 million a year in tax.
Culpeper County3$11.2MAbout 12.6%Culpeper Technology Zone; about 13 million sq ft approved and not yet built. County projects about $100 million a year at build-out.
Fauquier County3Allowed in the planned commercial-industrial district. A 1.8 million sq ft park in Remington approved for on-site gas fuel cells in July 2026 because grid power is not available until at least 2030. Warrenton's approved project is in litigation.
Spotsylvania County10.5M$0.3MSpecial use permit now required (February 2026). About 15.5 million sq ft approved and not yet built.
City of Manassas10.2M$1.1MFive under construction.
Warren County00$0Not a permitted use. Front Royal council voted in June 2026 toward a prohibition.
Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax City, Falls Church, Manassas Park00$0No data center zoning cases.
Virginia, statewide34063M$1.5BJLARC, Data Centers in Virginia (2024); 2026 updates from county and press sources.

Primary County fiscal 2027 budget documents; Loudoun and Prince William data center dashboards; Fairfax County FY2027 revenue estimates; JLARC, Data Centers in Virginia (2024). Press WUSA9, Oct. 6, 2026; InsideNoVa via Rappahannock News, Sept. 22, 2026; WTOP, July 7, 2026; FFXnow, Mar. 19, 2026; FauquierNow, July 10, 2026; Fredericksburg Free Press, Feb. 25, 2026. Industry No locality publishes megawatts; the only consistent regional figure is CBRE's Northern Virginia market total of about 4,500 MW operating and 2,400 MW under construction (first half of 2026).

Decisions

Local decisions, 2025 to 2026

The votes that have shaped the regional tax base in the last two years.

DateLocalityDecisionSource
Oct. 8, 2026FauquierBoard voted 4-1 to end by-right data centers countywide, limiting them to the planned commercial industrial district (Vint Hill has the only one) with a special exception, recycled water for cooling and buried power lines.Prince William Times
Oct. 8, 2026StaffordBoard approved the 590,000 sq ft Accokeek Center data center campus with reduced setbacks, 4-3.Fredericksburg Free Press
Oct. 6, 2026LoudounBoard tabled, 7-2, a $200,000 audit of 15 grandfathered data center projects (about 10.5 million sq ft) after staff warned that repealing grandfathering could cost $45 million to $60 million in litigation.WUSA9
Sept. 22, 2026Prince WilliamBoard voted 8-0 to end by-right data center development countywide, with a 90-day grace period for pending plans.InsideNoVa via Rappahannock News
Sept. 15, 2026LoudounBoard voted 7-1-1 to draft a 12-month pause on new legislative data center applications, with exceptions for grid-reliability substations. Final resolution expected Oct. 20.WUSA9
July 21, 2026Prince WilliamBoard initiated, 5-3, comprehensive plan amendments for up to about 3,900 homes in the rural west (Manassas Preserve and Catharpin Valley Estates), against the staff recommendation. Supporters cited $20 million to $25 million a year in real estate tax.InsideNoVa via Bristow Beat
July 10, 2026FauquierBoard approved, 3-1, an on-site gas fuel-cell power plant for the 1.8 million sq ft Remington Technology Park; without it, grid power would not arrive until at least 2030. A supervisor put the cost of delay at about $100 million in lost tax revenue.FauquierNow
July 7, 2026Prince WilliamBoard denied the 2,000-acre Dulles South data center campus, 8-0.WTOP
June 2026AlexandriaCouncil unanimously approved the first phase of the Potomac River Generating Station redevelopment with a $135 million financing package.Alexandria Brief
June 2026FauquierBoard unanimously approved a 1.4 million sq ft industrial park in Marshall.FauquierNow
Apr. 22, 2026StatewideHB 888 signed, capping the parking localities can require for housing within a half-mile of transit, effective July 1, 2026. The Virginia Association of Counties opposed the bill.FFXnow, June 5, 2026; VACo, Apr. 17, 2026
Apr. 14, 2026Prince WilliamBoard declined to appeal the Digital Gateway ruling to the Virginia Supreme Court, ending the project; the county's legal costs were reported at about $1.7 million.WUSA9
Mar. 19, 2026FairfaxBoard approved, 9-0, the $166.8 million sale of 41.7 acres in Chantilly for a data center, projected at about $20 million a year in tax revenue.FFXnow
Feb. 25, 2026SpotsylvaniaBoard voted to require a special use permit for data centers.Fredericksburg Free Press
Oct. 22, 2025StaffordBoard adopted a 750-foot setback for data centers.Fredericksburg Free Press
Sept. 10, 2025Prince WilliamBoard denied the Bristow Campus data center after protest.InsideNoVa
May 6, 2025FairfaxBoard adopted the county's first meals tax to close a $292.7 million budget gap.WUSA9
Mar. 19, 2025LoudounBoard eliminated by-right data center development, 7-2; existing applications grandfathered.LoudounNow

Coverage library

What the region's own reporters have documented

Local coverage from October 2024 to October 2026, organized by theme. Every item links to the article. Filter by locality or search within the findings.

Homeowners are carrying more of the load

Office values are falling and federal employment is shrinking. Localities have answered with new taxes and fees more often than with new commercial revenue.

DateLocalityFindingSource
Arlington / FairfaxWhy real estate taxes are going up in Arlington but down in FairfaxARLnow
AlexandriaAlexandria area leads Virginia in job losses as federal cuts deepenAlexandria Brief
Alexandria / FairfaxNumber of unemployed up by a thirdPatch
ArlingtonCounty manager warns even more tax increases could be in Arlington's futureARLnow
AlexandriaResidents, not businesses, fuel the 3.4% rise in the tax baseALXnow
ArlingtonOffice values down 19% YoY; tax base 57% residential / 43% commercial; real estate taxes are about 60% of $1.7B operating revenueARLnow
StatewideDOGE cuts wiped out years of growth in Virginia's federal civilian jobsVPM
FairfaxDelayed data shows jump in Fairfax joblessness as federal workforce shrinksFFXnow
FairfaxOffice assessments expected down 5 to 8%; commercial sector negative for third year; "tax burden being shifted more onto households"FFXnow
RegionFederal job cuts ripple through Northern VirginiaVirginia Business
FredericksburgCity weighs impact of federal job cutsVirginia Business
RegionNorthern Virginia leaders warn federal layoffs threaten local economyAxios
RegionNorthern Virginia braces for more job lossesInsideNoVa
ArlingtonCounty leaders warn federal workforce cuts could be "very severe" for county budgetWJLA
RegionHousing costs force exodus of young families from Northern VirginiaFFXnow

Budget gaps and tax increases, by locality

Every major locality in the region opened its last two budget cycles with a gap and closed it with some mix of higher homeowner bills, new taxes and cuts.

DateLocalityFindingSource
Falls ChurchRate reduced, but median homeowner still pays $557 moreARLnow
WarrentonTown council approves real estate tax increaseFauquierNow
Loudoun (LCPS)School division forecasts shortfalls from FY2030 as data center revenue growth slows; county staff expect growth to end around 2032LoudounNow
Alexandria$979.1M budget holds rate flat but council "eyes tougher choices ahead"ALXnow
StaffordSupervisors raise rate by more than 4¢Fredericksburg Free Press
StaffordRate hike approved amid resident affordability pleasPotomac Local
FairfaxFY2027 rate cut to $1.12 but average bills still risePatch
ArlingtonSplit board approves 2¢ tax hike in $1.7B budgetARLnow
Prince WilliamProposed $31M school cut reversed after public fightPatch
Prince WilliamSupervisors propose slashing taxes; school board objects; meals tax debatedWJLA
Prince WilliamBoard could remove $31M from schools to reduce real estate billsWTOP
ArlingtonService cutbacks and staff furloughs possible depending on revenueARLnow
AlexandriaCouncil keeps tax increase on the tableAlexandria Brief
FauquierTax bills expected to spike by hundreds of dollars on rising assessmentsFauquierNow
ArlingtonBudget proposes tax increase plus closure of gymnastics program and a libraryARLnow
Prince WilliamHomeowners could face $181 tax increase in FY2027InsideNoVa
FairfaxProposed $5.7B budget keeps rate flat, leaves school funding gapFFXnow
FairfaxCounty weighs agency cuts amid $131M gap; all departments told to identify 5% cutsWTOP
AlexandriaCity plans budget cuts across all departments amid economic uncertaintyALXnow
LoudounCounty staff push for lower data center tax rates to balance revenuesLoudounNow
FairfaxBoard adopts first-ever meals tax to close $292.7M gapWUSA9
Prince WilliamSupervisors near approval of tax hike on data centers and homeownersInsideNoVa
ManassasCity budget would hike bills for residents and data centersPrince William Times
FairfaxProposed budget mixes higher taxes with largest program cuts since 2010InsideNoVa
FairfaxFY2026 advertised budget: 1.5¢ rate increase, $60M in cuts, higher transient occupancy taxFairfax County
FairfaxLeaders forecast nearly $300M FY2026 shortfallWJLA

Residents on taxes and affordability

Public hearings in 2025 and 2026 were dominated by residents asking boards to stop raising taxes.

DateLocalityFindingSource
LoudounCounty collected $1.1B in data center tax revenue, then residents started pushing backYahoo Finance
Loudoun"A windfall, but at what cost?": the county's complex relationship with data center revenueLoudoun Times-Mirror
StaffordResidents plead affordability as supervisors raise ratePotomac Local
Manassas"$750 electric bills, soaring taxes force locals out"Potomac Local
Prince WilliamBills to rise $203 under a flat ratePotomac Local
FairfaxResidents demand Board of Supervisors stop raising taxes at first of three hearingsWJLA
FairfaxResidents speak out about $300M shortfall and what cuts mean for communitiesFOX 5

Staffing in local government and schools

Public safety and schools are where the squeeze shows first: hiring pauses, turnover and bargaining impasses over pay.

DateLocalityFindingSource
Fairfax (FCPS)Teacher hiring freeze prompts staffing concerns; school board member calls for it to endFOX 5
FairfaxPolice department launches pre-academy recruitment program (WJLA frames it as a response to staffing shortages; FCPD reports a about 3% vacancy rate)WJLA
ArlingtonStaff furloughs possible depending on tax revenueARLnow
Arlington (APS)School budget leaves almost $19M in unfunded needsARLnow
AlexandriaPolice union decries officer pay as collective bargaining reaches impasseALXnow
FairfaxUnion contract raises ($51.6M) may not be honored if money isn't available; FCPS raises were trimmed in 2025 for that reasonFFXnow
FairfaxSheriff's Office "on unsustainable trajectory" from turnover, staff sayFFXnow
ArlingtonLibrary warns of longer wait times after budget cutsARLnow
FairfaxPolice offer $15K hiring bonus in recruitment pushFOX 5
StatewideVirginia schools still struggling to fill critical teaching positionsVirginia Mercury
Prince William (PWCS)Foreign teachers recruited to fill jobs at county schoolsPrince William Times

Service cuts and deferred capital projects

Libraries, community centers and school renovations are the first things pushed out when the tax base cannot carry the capital plan.

DateLocalityFindingSource
Fairfax (FCPS)School board backs a sales-tax referendum to fund construction and maintenanceFFXnow
FairfaxParks and human-services bond referendums headed to votersFFXnow
StaffordLibrary services face cuts after $660K reduction despite tax hikePotomac Local
FairfaxCounty on track to keep AAA rating, but capital project costs weigh on budgetFFXnow
ArlingtonCherrydale library at risk of closing under proposed budgetWUSA9
FairfaxRevised bond plan delays library upgrades and Springfield community centerFFXnow
FairfaxScott's Run Nature Preserve closed for urgent sewer repairsFairfax County
Alexandria (ACPS)Budget defers Cora Kelly project; K-8 conversions pushed to 2030ALXnow
FairfaxLibrary system works to avoid "ugly" budget cutsFFXnow
Fairfax$460M school bond referendum soughtFFXnow
Prince WilliamMillions spent on canceled Route 28 Bypass must be repaidPatch

Roads and transportation

The D.C. region ranked No. 1 for worst traffic in 2025 while the state faces a highway maintenance shortfall.

DateLocalityFindingSource
StatewideVirginia confronts $1.7B shortfall in highway maintenance fundingVirginia Mercury
RegionLawmakers weigh merging Northern Virginia transit agencies to cut costsVirginia Mercury
Region"Gridlock nation": federal push to fix DMV's worst chokepointsWJLA
Prince WilliamRoute 28 widening plan after bypass cancellationFOX 5
RegionNorthern Virginia lawmakers make case for more Metro fundingWAMU
RegionWMATA, COG and NVTC endorse $460M regional transit planMass Transit
RegionD.C. region's "brutal commute" ranks No. 1 for worst traffic in the countryInsideNoVa
RegionD.C. beats Los Angeles for worst trafficNBC4
RegionNVTC backs regional transit funding planALXnow
RegionRegional leaders draft proposal to modernize Metro fundingVirginia Mercury
LoudounCounty's Metro subsidy bill rises under new formulaLoudounNow

Power, water and gas

The grid is the binding constraint. New lines and substations are contested in every county, and water systems are raising rates.

DateLocalityFindingSource
Dominion / LoudounHomeowners fight ruling allowing Golden-to-Mars high-voltage line through their propertiesWJLA
Dominion / Fairfax, AlexandriaOvernight storm knocks out power for thousands; flood rescues in AlexandriaFFXnow, ALXnow
Dominion / LoudounSCC rejects last-minute bid to pause lines through Loudoun Valley EstatesWUSA9
Dominion / LoudounDominion "minutes away" from putting every Ashburn data center on generators during heat waveLoudounNow
Dominion / FauquierRemington Technology Park approved for on-site gas fuel cells; without them, staff said construction would likely be delayed until at least 2030 under Dominion's revised energization scheduleFauquierNow
LoudounCrash knocks out power to thousands amid triple-digit heatFOX 5
Dominion / CulpeperCounty asks PJM to scrap Dominion substation and transmission projectWJLA
LoudounAnother proposed substation meets board oppositionLoudounNow
LoudounSterling residents raise alarms over off-grid data centerLoudounNow
RegionThousands without power after storms; Stafford hit hardestInsideNoVa, Potomac Local
PJMBoard approves $11.8B transmission expansionUtility Dive
Potomac RiverSewage spill in the PotomacVDH
FairfaxUtility bills set to rise in 2026Fairfax Times
Fairfax WaterRate hike proposedAnnandale Today
Loudoun WaterRates rise Jan. 1Loudoun Times-Mirror
Dominion / LoudounNeighbors fight proposed transmission lines for Data Center AlleyVirginia Mercury
PJMProjected data center growth drives capacity prices up tenfoldIEEFA
Dominion / Fauquier, Loudoun, PWPublic meetings on major transmission project across three countiesFauquierNow
WarrentonResidents complain of gas odorWUSA9
FairfaxEnvironmental council worried about data centers' impact on local water supplyFFXnow
Prince William WaterRate hike explained; PFAS treatment is a looming about $389M cost not yet in ratesPrince William Times
Prince William WaterLargest water rate hike in 20 years begins 2025Prince William Times
Dominion / LoudounDominion filed its SCC application for the Route 7 transmission lines and the board voted to participate in the case: the start of the current round of line fightsLoudoun Times-Mirror

Primary sources

Where to check the numbers yourself

The locality dataset

Behind this page is a working dataset covering the 13 localities in our region, with statewide Virginia totals alongside for comparison: about 28 headline measures per locality across income and cost of living, safety, taxes, government revenue and spending, economic development and data centers. Every value carries its period, source, URL and a confidence note, and the whole set was independently re-verified in October 2026.

We will publish it here as a download once the first public release is ready. In the meantime, ask us for any figure and we'll send it with its source.

Using our figures

You are welcome to use anything on this page. Cite the original source where we give one, and link to this page where the figure is our own calculation. If you find an error, tell us. We will correct it here and say what changed.